- Affirm, a prominent player in the buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) sphere, empowers consumers to split purchases into manageable installments. This innovative approach has contributed to a staggering 51.2% year-over-year revenue surge in fiscal Q3 2024, accompanied by a 36% rise in gross merchandise volume (GMV) to $6.3 billion.
- Despite ongoing losses, Affirm is poised to step into the BNPL domain vacated by Apple Pay, signaling a potential strategic shift. The move, however, is anticipated to have no significant impact on the company’s performance in fiscal 2025.
Affirm Holdings (NASDAQ:) has emerged as a frontrunner in the realm of buy-now-pay-later services, revolutionizing the retail landscape by creating space for payment flexibility. The stock traditionally exhibits a surge in value during peak BNPL periods, strategically coinciding with the holiday season. This trend could offer early-bird investors a profitable opportunity in the current market climate.
Operating within the business services sector, Affirm competes with industry giants such as Block (NYSE:), Afterpay, PayPal Holdings (NASDAQ:), Sezzle (NASDAQ:), and Zip Co. Ltd.
The Rise and Resilience of the Buy-Now-Pay-Later Landscape
The buy-now-pay-later model has witnessed an unprecedented surge in adoption, albeit under the scrutiny of consumer watchdogs questioning its impact on spending habits. Affirm, amidst the frenzy, witnessed a stock price dip from its zenith, reflecting concerns over increased delinquencies. While the allure of interest-free terms and credit checks lures in users with varying credit backgrounds, there is a notable reliance on BNPL among the Gen-Z populace, who shun traditional credit cards.
Heightened Fraud and Regulatory Oversight Shaping the BNPL Terrain
The BNPL sphere grapples with escalating fraud challenges and increasing regulatory scrutiny, mirroring the standards set for conventional credit card entities. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau’s (CFPB) heightened surveillance and regulatory mandates underscore the industry’s necessity to adhere to credit lending norms and consumer protections akin to those governing credit card operations.
Transfer of BNPL Baton from Apple to Affirm
In a landmark development on June 11, 2024, Apple Inc (NASDAQ:) announced its departure from the BNPL segment, paving the way for Apple Pay users to engage with Affirm. This strategic alliance propelled Affirm’s stock prices by 5% to $39.25, envisaging a collaborative venture with potential benefits. Nonetheless, Affirm foresees no substantial impact on its revenue or GMV in the upcoming fiscal year as a result of this alliance.
Financial Fortitude of Affirm: Q3 Momentum and Elevated Q4 Projections
Affirm’s fiscal Q3 2024 performance showcased an EPS loss of 43 cents, surpassing estimates by 27 cents to outperform market expectations. Bolstered by a robust revenue surge of 51.2% YoY to $576 million, Affirm’s Revenue Less Transaction Costs (RLTC) climbed by 38% YoY to $231 million. The company’s GMV ascended by 36% YoY to $6.3 billion, marking a consistent growth streak over the previous quarters.
The company upped its revenue guidance for fiscal Q4 2024, projecting figures between $585 million and $605 million, exceeding the $578.68 million consensus estimates. Moreover, Affirm anticipates GMV to range from $6.75 billion to $6.95 billion, with an adjusted operating margin poised between 15% and 17%. Additionally, new payment options like Pay in 2 or Pay in 30 are set to expand the company’s financial arsenal.
Seasonal Affirm Card Volume and Future Prospects
Affirm’s conference call underscored the significance of the Affirm Card, a hybrid physical and digital debit card tailored for BNPL enthusiasts. The card, aligned with a 0% APR for four installment plans, reflects Affirm’s commitment to innovation and customer-centric solutions. This volume growth, CEO Max Levchin assured, is on a seasonal trajectory and promises a cornucopia of impending features. Despite a deliberate pace in promoting the Affirm Card, the company remains optimistic about its potential, heralding it as a multi-billion dollar venture in the making.