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Performance Food Group Riding High on Disinflation Tailwinds in 2025


The Glistening Portfolio of Performance Food

Performance Food Group boasts an array of exclusive brands housed under its Performance Foodservice segment. With offerings ranging from Center of Plate (COP) to Seafood categories, the company caters to a diverse clientele – from upscale steakhouses to fast-food outlets and food trucks. Exclusive brands like Bay Winds, Empire’s Treasure, and The Fresh Catch in the seafood category, and Heritage Ovens, Sweet Encore, Piancone, and Roma in the Bakery & Desserts segment, add a touch of luxury to the culinary experience. Serving a plethora of industries, including restaurants, convenience stores, schools, and healthcare facilities, Performance Food Group covers a vast spectrum with products from over 100 exclusive brands.

PFGC Stock Soaring in an Upward Trajectory

Painting a picture of resilience, the daily candlestick chart for PFGC showcases an ascending price channel pattern, a testament to the company’s steadfast journey. With a recent price gap nudging shares back into the channel, the stock is on a bullish trajectory with the daily relative strength index (RSI) hitting the 70-band. Noteworthy pullback support levels at $70.73, $67.34, $65.19, and $63.35 are indicative of the stock’s underlying strength.

Accelerated Turnaround at Performance Food

In its fiscal Q4 2024, Performance Food Group outperformed expectations, reporting an EPS of $1.45, surpassing consensus estimates by 8 cents. Adjusted EBITDA witnessed a solid increase of 18.4%, amounting to $456.2 million, while revenues ticked up by 2.3% year-over-year (YoY) to $15.2 billion. Notably, organic independent food service case volume surged by 3.7%, underlining the company’s foothold in the market. Despite a 2.9% inflation in product costs, Performance Food Group demonstrated resilience, with robust sales across its segments.

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Mixed Bag: Performance Food’s Guidance for 2025

Looking ahead to fiscal Q1 2025, Performance Food Group issued revenue guidance slightly below consensus, ranging from $15.2 billion to $15.5 billion. Adjusted EBITDA is projected to hover between $400 million to $425 million for the quarter. The addition of José Santiago to its business results is expected to add a new dimension to Performance Food’s operations in the upcoming quarter.

Transitioning into the full fiscal year 2025, Performance Food Group sets its eyes on revenues spanning $60 billion to $61 billion, against the backdrop of the $60.83 billion consensus estimates. The company also aims for an Adjusted EBITDA of $1.6 billion to $1.7 billion, putting forth an ambitious yet achievable forecast for the year. With recent acquisitions playing a pivotal role in the company’s growth strategy, CEO George Holm expressed optimism about the future prospects, especially in the Southeastern United States and Caribbean territories.