Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. CBRL is set to reveal its fourth-quarter fiscal 2024 results on Sept. 19. In the previous quarter, CBRL surprised the market with a whopping 57.1% earnings beat.

Estimate Revision Trends

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Q4 earnings per share sits at $1.17, signaling a 34.6% decline from the prior year. On the revenue front, estimates are at $898.8 million, showing a 7.4% increase from the corresponding period last year.

Let’s delve into the factors that could have impacted CBRL’s performance in the upcoming quarter.

Factors Impacting CBRL

Cracker Barrel’s Q4 top line may have benefitted from menu enhancements, increased pricing, expansions, and other sales initiatives. The introduction of $5 take-home meals at the start of fiscal 2024, coupled with a rise in demand for breakfast items like Homestyle Chicken and French Toast, is anticipated to drive revenue growth.

The company’s off-premise sales are on the rise, supported by initiatives such as curbside delivery and family meal baskets. However, challenges like weak traffic and same-store sales are expected to have a dampening effect on the results, with retail same-store sales likely to decline by 0.5% year over year.

Despite revenue growth, increased costs due to strategic investments in advertising and labor are likely to have squeezed margins in the to-be-reported quarter. Forecasted figures indicate rising expenses, with adjusted-operating income expected to drop by 30.7% year over year.

Earnings Predictions

A positive Earnings ESP combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) usually paves the way for an earnings beat. In the case of Cracker Barrel, the current Earnings ESP of +2.74% and Zacks Rank #2 indicate a potential beat.

Looking at other players in the Retail-Wholesale sector, stocks like Domino’s Pizza, Papa John’s International, and Starbucks Corporation also exhibit a favorable combination for an earnings beat based on our model’s analysis.

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