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New Hampshire Republican Primary Shows Tight Race Between Trump and Haley New Hampshire Republican Primary Reveals Close Race Between Trump and Haley

The New Hampshire primary has unveiled a tightly contested battle between registered Republicans and independent voters, as preliminary exit poll results showed a noteworthy division among the voter base.

Analysis: In the aftermath of former President Donald Trump’s four criminal trials, voters have shown a split stance on his suitability for the presidency if convicted. A recent report from CNN indicates that while a majority appear content with the prospect of Trump securing the Republican nomination once again, division remains palpable among the electorate.

Supporters of Trump and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley have revealed marked disparities in their rationale for endorsing their respective candidates. An estimated 75% of Trump voters have expressed robust support for him, with few exhibiting reservations or voting primarily to oppose his rivals.

In contrast, 40% of Haley voters have demonstrated support driven by disdain for her opponents. Approximately 30% have admitted to having reservations about her, while only a third have shown strong favorability toward her.

Both Trump and Haley supporters have expressed a strong aversion to the nomination of their preferred candidate’s rival. Three-quarters of Trump voters would be dissatisfied if Haley were to emerge victorious, while 90% of Haley supporters would be displeased if Trump secured his third nomination.

Exit poll results have also shed light on the ideological inclinations of the primary voters, with nearly two-thirds identifying as conservatives. However, a majority do not align with the MAGA movement, and about half believe that President Joe Biden’s 2020 victory was legitimate.

Analogous to Iowa, immigration and the economy have emerged as the top issues for New Hampshire’s Republican primary voters. Most voters have characterized the state of the economy as poor or not so good, and roughly half have shown support for the deportation of most undocumented immigrants. Intriguingly, a majority have opposed a federal ban on most or all abortions, contrasting with the sentiment in Iowa.

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Why It’s Significant: Exit polls provide valuable insights into the demographics and political predispositions of primary voters. However, given that they are estimates, especially in preliminary stages yet to be weighted against final results, they provide a glimpse into the profiles of participating voters.

According to a poll conducted by Suffolk University prior to the primary, Trump garnered the backing of 55% of respondents, marking a 5% increase from an earlier poll. Notably, a CNN/University of New Hampshire (UNH) poll has indicated that 62% of voters who initially supported DeSantis would now shift their allegiance to Trump, potentially bolstering his campaign. Meanwhile, 30% are inclined toward Haley, who, according to the same poll, is trailing Trump by 11 percentage points.

Nevertheless, the polls have also signaled a decline in Trump’s lead and a surge in support for Haley. A Morning Consult national poll found Trump leading by 52 points over his competition, with Haley closely following at 11%.

Final Thoughts: Navigating the political landscape of the New Hampshire primary, the contest between Trump and Haley has garnered significant attention, showcasing the divergent views and motivations of the voter base. These findings are indicative of a highly competitive and polarizing environment as the Republican Party navigates its future in the post-Trump era.


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Shivdeep Dhaliwal


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