Monitoring Market Trends and Levels
A latest review of the S&P 500 investment positions reveals significant activity. Positions include selling the SPX on 8/19/24 at 5608.25, yielding an 8.14% gain; and a long SPX on 8/5/24 at 5186.33. Also, a covered short on 8/2/24 at 5346.56, resulting in a 3.18% gain; and a short SPX on 7/31/24 at 5522.30 showcase a strategic investment approach.
Consistent Gains Over Time
The track record showcases a remarkable gain of 28.12% from 1/1/23 to 12/31/23. Comparatively, the overall SPX gain stands at 23.38%. Further, a long position initiated on 10/9/20 at 40.78 reflects a long-term commitment to the market.
Analyzing Market Patterns
Successfully navigating the market, with over 26% year-to-date gains, with the SPX showing growth of around 17%. The daily SPY chart reveals valuable insights. Notably, SPY has been marking higher highs, while the SPY/VIX ratio has indicated lower highs, hinting at an upcoming pullback, as seen in the shaded purple areas.
Future Projections and Consolidation
Potential scenarios suggest testing of two gaps in the upcoming weeks – one near 545 SPY and another near 520. Additionally, the shaded green area indicates instances of panic near bottoms, promoting sideways consolidation for a probable test near 520 SPY before the next wave-up begins.
Market Dynamics and Divergence
Reviewing the monthly SPX chart dating back to late 2019, a bearish divergence trend emerges where the monthly SPX presents higher highs, while the SPX/VIX ratio indicates lower highs, as highlighted in the shaded pink areas. The month of July marked a higher high compared to June, with the SPX/VIX ratio presenting a significant negative divergence.
Chart Updates and Positive Indicators
Chart updates on GDX reveal a persistent positive divergence trend, signaling ongoing bullish momentum. The analysis points to recurring divergences near market highs and lows. The current rally shows promising signs, with GDX matching previous highs, accompanied by a surge in up-down volume and advance/decline figures, reinforcing the likelihood of a sustained rally. Both weekly and monthly charts also signal a buy indication, attesting to the market’s favorable trajectory.