We updated this chart again and Monday’s commentary still stands, “The market is entering into the weakest quarter of the year that last into October. Support lies near the 608 SPY.

Above is the weekly SPDR® S&P 500® ETF Trust (NYSE:). The week of June 23 broke through the previous high of the week of February 11 (608 spy range) with a “Sign of Strength” which confirms the breakout. Now the previous high of 608 range should now act as support. Don’t have a clear sign but could end up with a short signal in this area.” Sold long SPX (7/14/25) at 6268.56 = gain of 2.90%; Long SPX on 6/25/25 at 6092.16. 

Monday we presented the 10 day average of the TRIN; readings above 1.20 are bullish and below .90 bearish. Monday’s reading came in at .88. The bottom window in the above chart is the weekly SPX and next higher window is the weekly SPX/TLT ratio. Over the last two weeks the SPX modestly pushed higher while the SPX/TLT ratio moved lower; showing a bearish divergence (shaded in light pink). We also shaded in light pink in early 2025 where the weekly SPX modestly rallied and the SPX/TLT ratio moved lower and predicted the pull back to come. The current negative divergence is not the same degree as the early 2025 timeframe and suggests a more modest pull back, but 6100 range on the SPX is possible.

More evidence that a high in the gold stocks is near. The bottom window is the 18 day average of the up down volume for GDX and next higher window is the 18 day average of the advance/decline for GDX. GDX is considered in an uptrend when both indicators are above -10 and a downtrend when below minus 10. Current reading of the up down volume indictor is -8.85 and the advance/decline indicator is minus 7.34; both indicators close to closing below -10. Though GDX has pull back modestly, both indicators fell dramatically over the last couple of weeks. There is potential for a pull back in GDX that may test the 40.00 range and XAU may test the 185 range.

Monitoring purposes; Sold SPX on 7/14/25 at 6268.56= gain 2.90%; Long SPX on 6/25/25 at 6092.16.

Our gain 1/1/24 to 12/31/24 = 29.28%; SPX gain 23.67%

Our Gain 1/1/23 to 12/31/23 SPX= 28.12%; SPX gain 23.38%

Monitoring purposes : Sold long GDX (NYSE:) 4/11/25 at 49.66 = gain 21.33%.