Market News

S&P 500 Rally Stalls as Bearish Divergences Suggest a Pause Ahead

We updated this chart again and Monday’s commentary still stands, “The market is entering into the weakest quarter of the year that last into October. Support lies near the 608 SPY. SPY Weekly – Failed Breakout Reversal

Above is the weekly SPDR® S&P 500® ETF Trust (NYSE:). The week of June 23 broke through the previous high of the week of February 11 (608 spy range) with a “Sign of Strength” which confirms the breakout. Now the previous high of 608 range should now act as support. Don’t have a clear sign but could end up with a short signal in this area.” Sold long SPX (7/14/25) at 6268.56 = gain of 2.90%; Long SPX on 6/25/25 at 6092.16. 

S&P 500 vs TLT Ratio (SPX/TLT) – Weekly Chart

Monday we presented the 10 day average of the TRIN; readings above 1.20 are bullish and below .90 bearish. Monday’s reading came in at .88. The bottom window in the above chart is the weekly SPX and next higher window is the weekly SPX/TLT ratio. Over the last two weeks the SPX modestly pushed higher while the SPX/TLT ratio moved lower; showing a bearish divergence (shaded in light pink). We also shaded in light pink in early 2025 where the weekly SPX modestly rallied and the SPX/TLT ratio moved lower and predicted the pull back to come. The current negative divergence is not the same degree as the early 2025 timeframe and suggests a more modest pull back, but 6100 range on the SPX is possible.

GDX Daily – Flag Breakdown With Volume Spike

More evidence that a high in the gold stocks is near. The bottom window is the 18 day average of the up down volume for GDX and next higher window is the 18 day average of the advance/decline for GDX. GDX is considered in an uptrend when both indicators are above -10 and a downtrend when below minus 10. Current reading of the up down volume indictor is -8.85 and the advance/decline indicator is minus 7.34; both indicators close to closing below -10. Though GDX has pull back modestly, both indicators fell dramatically over the last couple of weeks. There is potential for a pull back in GDX that may test the 40.00 range and XAU may test the 185 range.

See also  Exploring Palantir's Growth Amid Microsoft Partnership Unpacking the AI Landscape

As we delve into the third quarter of 2024, the world of artificial intelligence (AI) reigns supreme on Wall Street, with tech behemoths and emerging startups engaged in a fierce battle for dominance in this dynamic realm. The global AI market, set to surpass a staggering $184 billion in 2024, is forecasted to inject around $15.7 trillion into the global economy by 2030.

Palantir's Evolution and Microsoft Collaboration

Palantir Technologies (PLTR), a pivotal figure in enterprise software and security since its inception in 2003, has recently captured widespread attention due to its strategic collaboration with Microsoft (MSFT), unveiled on the heels of PLTR's robust quarterly earnings release in early August. This collaboration has buoyed investor confidence, propelling Palantir's stock by over 6% in a mere week.

Furthermore, this partnership comes at a pivotal juncture as both public and private entities intensify their focus on AI technologies. A visionary like Dan Ives from Wedbush sees this collaboration as a potential game-changer for Palantir, particularly within the federal landscape, where its Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) holds substantial promise.

So, the burning question lingers – is Palantir stock a gem worth acquiring? Let's navigate through Palantir's market performance, growth trajectory, and expert prognostications.

Palantir's Stellar Stock Surge

Following a period of lackluster performance, Palantir Technologies (PLTR) has capitalized on the AI frenzy gripping the stock market. With an impressive 81.8% year-to-date surge and a remarkable 103.1% leap over the past 52 weeks, PLTR now boasts a market capitalization of $69.01 billion and an enterprise value of $68.20 billion, solidifying its stance among the leading data analytics and AI software entities.

However, this lofty valuation entails towering expectations, evident in the company's valuation metrics. Palantir's forward price/earnings (P/E) ratio stands at 87.25 on an adjusted basis, while its price/sales ratio clocks in at 25.16. These figures, substantially above the tech sector averages, imply that investors are willing to shell out a premium for PLTR's prospective earnings growth at prevailing price levels. Although the company's PEG ratio hovers around 3.63, indicating somewhat steep valuations, particularly concerning PLTR's envisaged growth potentials.

Exemplary Q2 Performance Uplifts PLTR's Prospects

Echoing its stock rally, Palantir's financial aspect has been equally noteworthy. In the Q2 2024 earnings disclosure, the company reported a remarkable 27% year-over-year revenue uptick, hitting $678 million. Notably, Palantir achieved a record GAAP earnings per share of $0.06, marking its seventh consecutive quarter of GAAP profitability, a noteworthy feat within the AI domain that typically prioritizes expansion over immediate profits.

The U.S. commercial revenue, excluding specific contracts, surged to $159 million, denoting a robust 55% year-over-year spike. This commercial sector growth augurs well, indicating that Palantir is diversifying its revenue streams beyond core government contracts. Moreover, the company's bottom-line performance surpassed analyst estimates, with earnings per share of $0.09 surpassing the projected $0.08.

Strategic Collaborations and AI Advancements

A subsequent 11% surge post-earnings saw PLTR clinch another victory as it unveiled collaboration plans with Microsoft. These plans aim to fortify AI and analytics services targeting U.S. government agencies, especially within classified networks crucial for national safeguarding.

The partnership entails the deployment of Palantir's suite of products – Foundry, Gotham, Apollo, and AIP – on Microsoft's Azure Government and classified cloud environments. Integration of Microsoft's large language models (LLMs) into Palantir's AI platforms via Azure OpenAI Service signals a pathway for AI-driven operational loads within defense and intelligence arenas. Investors' fervor was palpable, with PLTR's stock breaching $30 per share last week for the first time since February 2021 on the announcement.

PALANTIR TECHNOLOGIES: A Financial Perspective The Rise of Palantir Technologies in the Financial Landscape

Monitoring purposes; Sold SPX on 7/14/25 at 6268.56= gain 2.90%; Long SPX on 6/25/25 at 6092.16.

Our gain 1/1/24 to 12/31/24 = 29.28%; SPX gain 23.67%

Our Gain 1/1/23 to 12/31/23 SPX= 28.12%; SPX gain 23.38%

Monitoring purposes : Sold long GDX (NYSE:) 4/11/25 at 49.66 = gain 21.33%.

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