Conflicting opinions on Rivian (NASDAQ: RIVN) stock have left investors puzzled. Price targets swinging from $14 to $19 per share have created a sense of uncertainty. With the current stock price at $13, the debate centers on whether there is room for growth in the near term. Recently, one Wall Street analyst made a bold prediction, reiterating an outperform rating and setting a target price of $19, implying a 42% potential upside – the most bullish outlook amongst analysts.
Is there merit to the claim of a 42% increase in Rivian stock value over the next year? Let’s delve deeper into the analysis.
Predicting Rivian’s Trajectory Over the Upcoming Year
Forecasting short-term stock movements can be challenging. However, projecting business developments provides a clearer path. Rivian’s recent growth trajectory is commendable, swiftly escalating from negligible revenue to over $5 billion in a span of a few years. This success is credited to the introduction of two luxury models, the R1T and R1S, targeting high-end consumers. Parallels can be drawn with Tesla’s early strategy, where the focus was on high-priced models to establish a reputation for quality.
Rivian is poised to follow Tesla’s playbook. After proving its mettle with luxury models like Tesla’s Model S and Model X, Rivian plans to pivot towards the mass market with its R2, R3, and R3X models, priced below $50,000. These new offerings are expected to significantly expand Rivian’s market reach, leading to a surge in revenue similar to Tesla’s growth to nearly $100 billion. This strategic shift indicates a promising outlook for Rivian.
Rivian’s new models are slated for release in the first half of 2026. Therefore, the upcoming year will predominantly involve enhancements in manufacturing capabilities and production timelines. However, a significant event in the next 12 months could serve as a pivotal catalyst for the stock, driving the optimism of the most bullish analyst on Wall Street.
Unlocking Growth with Positive Gross Margins
A critical variance between Tesla and Rivian currently lies in their gross margin performance. While Tesla has been consistently profitable per vehicle, Rivian is still grappling with substantial losses per unit. Nevertheless, Rivian anticipates a turnaround soon. Recently, Rivian’s management disclosed their aim to achieve positive gross margins by the fourth quarter of 2024. Over the past year, Rivian has narrowed its per-vehicle gross loss from $33,000 to $6,000. Eliminating this final deficit will validate the prudent financial management of the company while scaling up to support its upcoming mass-market models.
Analyst George Gianarikas from Canaccord forecasts that Rivian’s transition to profitability will dispel doubts about the company’s long-term viability. This financial milestone is expected to energize Rivian’s sales launch for R2, R3, and R3X models, propelling the company towards achieving scalability and operational efficiency.
If Rivian successfully achieves positive gross margins this year, its prospects for 2025 and beyond will notably improve. As the mass-market vehicles hit the streets, Rivian’s current $13 billion valuation could potentially be undervalued. However, investors should exercise patience to witness the fruition of this transformational journey.
Is Rivian Automotive a Viable Investment?
Before contemplating an investment in Rivian Automotive, it’s crucial to consider the following:
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Ryan Vanzo has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Tesla. The Motley Fool maintains a strict disclosure policy.