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Earning Season: Top Picks for Investors Earning Season: Top Picks for Investors

Earnings season always offers a gripping peek behind the corporate curtain, a time when companies bare their financial souls to investors. The 2023 Q4 cycle looms large, a critical juncture where stakeholders eagerly seek insights into what lies ahead for 2024 and beyond.

Chipotle Mexican Grill

Chipotle Mexican Grill, a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), operates fresh Mexican restaurant chains. In 2024, it demonstrated a healthy relative strength, a 1.5% climb while the S&P 500 dipped 0.4%.

Buoyant analyst sentiment surrounds Chipotle’s release, with the $9.64 Zacks Consensus EPS Estimate 2% higher since October. This growth hints at a substantial 16% uptick from the same period last year.

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CMG’s expected top line expansion, a hefty $2.5 billion quarterly revenue estimate, implies a 14% climb—up 1.4% since October. The company has benefited from lower costs and sustained business momentum, fueling its robust growth.

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While CMG sports a lofty 44.1X forward earnings multiple, albeit below its 53.3X five-year median, investors have shown no qualms about paying a premium, given the company’s growth trajectory.

Netflix

Netflix, a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), stands tall as a leader in online streaming. Its stock has surged in popularity over the past decade, evidenced by significant outperformance.

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The Zacks Consensus EPS Estimate of $2.20 reflects quadruple-digit year-over-year growth of over 1700%. Additionally, the $8.7 billion quarterly revenue estimate implies an 11% climb.

Notably, subscriber numbers are the key metric for investors. Paid Net Membership additions totaled 9 million in its latest release, surpassing expectations, buoyed by new ad-supported plans. Impressively, ad-supported memberships soared 70% quarter-over-quarter.

See also  Assessing Ford's Stock Performance Amid Recent DeclineUnveiling Ford's Recent Stock Struggles

Amid a tumultuous time for U.S. automaker Ford (F), the once high-flying stock has taken a nosedive of nearly 23% over the past month. The primary culprit behind this slump can be attributed to the lackluster second-quarter results unveiled by the company. In the wake of Ford's latest earnings report on Jul 24, investors were left reeling as the company fell short of earnings per share expectations and witnessed a grim 5% decline in net income to $1.8 billion year over year.

General Motors Shines as Ford Stumbles

Comparatively, Ford's closest competitor, General Motors (GM), painted a rosier picture with better-than-expected second-quarter earnings and sales figures. The stark contrast saw GM revising its full-year guidance upwards for both earnings per share and free cash flow, while Ford, despite a boost in adjusted free cash flow projections for 2024, maintained a rather conservative profit outlook which failed to impress eager investors seeking a more optimistic forecast.

Ford Pro: A Beacon of Hope

Diving into the crux of Ford's operations, the commercial vehicle division, known as Ford Pro, shone brightly in the second quarter, boasting an impressive 15.1% operating margin - the highest amongst all Ford's divisions. The stellar performance of Ford Pro can be credited to the strong demand for Super Duty trucks and Transit commercial vans, further fueled by a sturdy order book which drove the segment's success.

Additionally, Ford's strategic expansion plans include the establishment of a third assembly plant in North America to ramp up production capacity of Super Duty trucks by 100,000 units commencing in 2026. A bullish move signaling Ford's commitment to leveraging the soaring popularity of its Super Duty trucks.

Ford Model e: A Weight on Ford's Shoulders

However, not all shines bright in Ford's empire. The electric vehicle (EV) division, Ford Model e, emerged as a sore spot in the company's financial landscape, incurring a substantial $1.1 billion loss in the second quarter. This dismal performance within the EV segment is projected to drag overall profits down, with Ford anticipating the full-year loss from the Model e unit to range between $5 billion and $5.5 billion.

Such setbacks within the EV realm have led to a cloud of uncertainty shrouding Ford's overall profitability. Analysts foresee a 5.5% year-over-year decline in Ford's earnings per share for 2024, signaling a lack of confidence in the company's short-term prospects.

Ford's Future Trajectory

Despite the evident challenges plaguing Ford, the robust performance of Ford Pro is anticipated to offset some of the losses incurred by the struggling EV division. Maintaining a cautious outlook, Ford has tempered its operating profit forecasts for the Ford Blue segment due to persisting quality issues within its traditional internal combustion engine models.

On a more reassuring note, Ford's financial health seems stable with approximately $27 billion in cash and $45 billion in liquidity by the end of the second quarter. The company's commitment to achieving $2 billion in efficiencies over the year further bolsters the narrative of a financially resilient Ford amidst internal turmoil.

Evaluating Ford's Stock Valuation

Despite the recent downturn, Ford's valuation remains an appealing proposition for investors. Trading at a forward sales multiple of 0.24 - lower than the industry average and its five-year historical average - Ford garners a Value Score of A, reeling in potential investors enticed by the allure of an undervalued stock.

In Conclusion

While Ford's undervalued status beckons to adventurous investors, it is essential to heed the warning signs. The looming specter of soaring warranty and recall costs, coupled with tepid demand for EVs, cast a shadow of doubt over Ford's potential resurgence. As CEO Jim Farley and his earnest team wage an uphill battle to navigate Ford through these turbulent waters, the cautious stance for new investors would be one of watching from the sidelines, while existing shareholders tread carefully amidst a landscape fraught with uncertainties.

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MercadoLibre

MercadoLibre, one of the largest e-commerce platforms in South America, is expected to post substantial growth, with consensus earnings and revenue estimates pointing to increases of 105% and 38%, respectively. MELI has consistently outperformed, exceeding consensus EPS expectations by an average of 33% over its last four releases.

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Much like CMG, MercadoLibre’s revenue growth has been robust, displaying double-digit year-over-year revenue growth rates in its last 13 quarterly releases.

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Bottom Line

Earnings season, though frenetic, is an exhilarating opportunity for investors to gain profound insights into company performance. Netflix, Chipotle Mexican Grill, and MercadoLibre are poised to delight investors, flaunting positive Zacks Earnings ESP Scores and a favorable Zacks Rank, signaling optimism among analysts.