March 26th marked a significant shift in the land of Swiss Franc. A peculiar dream steered my attention to the charts revealing a prolonged downward spiral in the futures market.

Upon closer examination, it became evident that the Swiss Franc had drawn near to the 23- and 80-month moving averages. Notably, the price had maintained its position above both moving averages for over a year.

Against a backdrop of softening long bond yields and a receding US dollar, the time seemed ripe to delve back into this dream and provide an updated analysis based on the daily chart.

Initially, it was observed that FXF valiantly clung to the low point of October 6th, steadfastly above 97.00.

Furthermore, FXF exhibited superior performance when compared to the benchmark.

Our Real Motion Indicator chimed in, suggesting a mean reversion for FXF.

On April 15th, a new 60+ day low was followed by an inside day, culminating in today’s closure above the highs of both days. Is this the start of a reversal pattern?

It is hoped that FXF will rally back above and conclude the week beyond 98.10, or the 200-week moving average.

Exchange-Traded Fund Overview

• S&P 500 (SPY) finds its next substantial support at 500
• Russell 2000 (IWM) clings onto 192 for support
• Dow (DIA) eyes maintainance near the January low of 372
• Nasdaq (QQQ) particularly pivotal with 427, especially on a weekly close basis
• Regional banks (KRE) consolidate within the 45-50 range
• Semiconductors (SMH) look to maintain support levels at 205-206
• Transportation (IYT) considers 67 as a pivotal point, backed by stronger support at 65
• Biotechnology (IBB) deems 128 as a crucial level
• Retail (XRT) anticipates the next support level at 67.00
• iShares iBoxx Hi Yd Cor Bond ETF (HYG) eyes the 200-day moving average at 75.50